Welcome to 1996

The Internet Wayback Machine can be embarrassing. Even if you've removed a page from your website, it may still be available. This week I hopped in the Wayback Machine on a mission to find the earliest Technology Corner column that I could. This one is so far back in history that it's no longer on the website. The website goes back to January 1998. I believe that I purged the earlier files because of space limitations, but those limitations no longer exist on the website or on my local computer. In 1996, I was comparing computers to cars -- an analogy that I've continued to exploit over the years.

On November 17, 1996, I wrote:

I've occasionally compared computers to cars. Why? When I do that, I usually say that computers are still in the "Model T" era. You look at the shiny, new computers in stores with their Pentium and Pentium Pro processors. Windows 95, Windows NT, OS/2, and the Mac OS all appear to be sophisticated and technologically advanced.

Well, maybe we're not in the Model T era any more, but we're not far removed from it. Comparing computers to cars, we're maybe in the mid-1920s.

The first motorists had to know how to take their cars apart and fix them. Drive a few miles, and you might have to change a tire. Try to climb a steep enough hill and you'd have to do it in reverse. See anybody doing that lately? Modern cars are appliances. You get in, turn them on, maybe you remember to change the oil every now and then, and they work.

What about today's computers? I don't know about you, but my computer certainly doesn't work all the time. I spend a lot of time testing software, so I probably need more time to tinker with the computer than most people do, but most users spend far too much time trying to fix things that have gone wrong. Things don't work the way we think they should. Despite efforts to standardize things, we still have the equivalent of a car with the gear shift in the glove box.

So if you find yourself being frustrated with your computer, think "1930 Ford".

Is that still an accurate analogy? You bet it is. Computers crash a lot less than they used to. The last time any of my Windows XP machines crashed (a few months ago) it was because a memory module was failing. Once that was replaced, everything was fine. Apple's OS X still locks up occasionally, but I'm getting better at finding a way to kill just the offending application without having to restart the machine.

Our computers have possibly progressed being the equivalent of late 1950s cars. They now have huge tail fins and they last only a few years, but they've come a long way from where they were in the 1930s (or, for computers, the mid 1990s.)

On December 1, 1996, I took a look at software version numbers. This is as accurate today as it was nearly a decade ago.

Once you start playing with software you quickly become aware that each software package has a revision code attached to it. It is obvious that this revision code gives the sequence of changes to the product, but in reality there's substantially more information available through the rev code than that. This article provides a guide for interpreting the meaning of the revision codes and what they actually signify.
Version 1.0 Also known as "one point uh-oh", or "barely out of beta". We had to release because the lab guys had reached a point of exhaustion and the marketing guys were in a cold sweat of terror. We're praying that you'll find it more functional than, say, a computer virus and that its operation has some resemblance to that specified in the marketing copy.
Version 1.1 We fixed all the killer bugs.
Version 1.2 Uh, we introduced a few new bugs fixing the killer bugs and so we had to fix them, too.
Version 2.0 We did the product we really wanted to do to begin with. Mind you, it's really not what the customer needs yet, but we're working on it.
Version 2.1 Well, not surprisingly, we broke some things in making major changes so we had to fix them. But we did a really good job of testing this time, so we don't think we introduced any new bugs while we were fixing these bugs.
Version 2.2 Uh, sorry, one slipped through. One lousy typo error and you won't believe how much trouble it caused!
Version 2.3 Some jerk found a deep-seated bug that's been there since 1.0 and wouldn't stop nagging until we fixed it!
Version 3.0 Hey, we finally think we've got it right! Most of the customers are really happy with this.
Version 3.1 Of course, we did break a few little things.
Version 4.0 More features. It's doubled in size now, by the way, and you'll need to get more memory and a faster processor.
Version 4.1 Just one or two bugs this time ... Honest!
Version 5.0 We really need to go on to a new product, but we have an installed base out there to protect. We're cutting the staffing after this.
Version 6.0 We had to fix a few things we broke in 5.0. Not very many, but it's been so long since we looked at this thing we might as well call it a major upgrade. Oh, yeah, we added a few flashy cosmetic features so we could justify the major upgrade number.
Version 6.1 Since I'm leaving the company and I'm the last guy left in the lab who works on the product, I wanted to make sure that all the changes I've made are incorporated before I go. I added some cute demos, too, since I was getting pretty bored back here in my dark little corner (I kept complaining about the lighting but they wouldn't do anything). They're talking about obsolescence planning but they'll try to keep selling it for as long as there's a buck or two to be made. I'm leaving the bits in as good a shape as I can in case somebody has to tweak them, but it'll be sheer luck if no one loses them.

Author unknown in 1996 and still unknown in 2006.

Remember the IBM Selectric typewriter?

The Selectric (the one with the ball) was the undisputed king of the office for a couple of decades. When personal computers began to take the place of typewriters, IBM sold the business unit in the mid 1990s. Selectrics continued to sell for a few years, but the division eventually sank out of sight. In late 2004, IBM announced that it would sell its personal computer division to China's Lenovo Group.

Lenovo may be the world’s number 3* maker of personal computers, but that doesn't mean it's immune from market pressures. Lenovo says first-quarter profit fell 89%. It blames rising competition and $19 million in costs incurred when it cut jobs.

Although Lenovo is a Chinese company, it is headquartered in Purchase, New York. Lenovo acquired IBM's personal computer division for $1.25 billion. The company is battling Dell and HP for market share. Net income for Lenovo's first quarter (which ended June 30) declined from $46 million last year to $5 million.

What did IBM know that Lenovo didn't?

*Actually, Lenovo is #4 behind HP, Dell, and Apple. Apple makes more computers than any other manufacturer because -- even though Apple has a tiny market share -- is is the sole manufacturer of Apple computers. Tiny? The San Jose Mercury News, Apple's hometown newspaper, puts the company's market share at 5.8%. That's in the US. Worldwide, Apple's market share is about 2%.

Nerdly News

The incredible shrinking AOL

Nearly a quarter of AOL's workers will soon no longer be employed by AOL. The company says it will terminate 5000 employees within 6 months. AOL has been struggling for a long time because once broadband connectivity comes to the home, many people see little point in paying AOL an extra $10 per month for a dumbed-down interface. Tech-savvy users typically avoided AOL even when nothing but dial-up was available.

In trying to figure out what to do to keep collecting money from users, AOL will now offer free e-mail and other services. The goal is to keep users on AOL after they move to a cable or DSL service.

The free services will include a client application that will be advertiser supported. Users will receive e-mail for free, along with an anti-spyware application, spam filtering, access to AOL community content, and a local phone number. (Hello, AOL ... this is for people with high speed access. Why do they need a local dial-up number?)

Like a failing radio station that hops from one format to another, AOL has gone through 3 or 4 business models in the past few years. The company processes far more cancellations than subscriptions. AOL says nearly 1 million users cancelled in the second quarter this year. AOL has about 18 million subscribers, down more than 30% since 2002.

Time Warner is looking for a buyer to pick up AOL's European access business.

Circuit City appears to be itching for a fight

Let's say you have a DVD. You bought it. You'd like to convert it to play on a hand-held device. There's just one problem with that. It's illegal. The geniuses in Washington created the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, which makes any use of DVDs other than just putting them into a player and watching them illegal.

Now Circuit City says it will offer a "DVD video transfer service" that will convert commercial DVDs for use on portable devices. How much? $10 for 1 DVD, $20 for 3 DVDs or $30 for 5 DVDs. If you're interested, act now because somebody in Circuit City's legal department is sure to take notice and shut the service down. If not, Circuit City's legal department will soon hear from the Motion Picture Association of America. The MPAA was the chief beneficiary of the DMCA and the organizations wields it as a large club.

The sad thing is that Circuit City's service makes a lot of sense. It's a service that would allow people to use their DVDs the way they would like to use them. But the MPAA would prefer that you buy a regular DVD for use at home and then buy the same movie again in another form for use in a portable player.

Annoying legal disclaimer

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